Why a consensus paper

A consensus paper does three things that single-lab papers cannot:

Combine evidence across domains so the global picture is visible.
Identify what most experts agree on — and where the real disagreements are, so future research can target them.
Speak with weight to policy audiences who otherwise discount single-lab findings as one perspective among many.

The Delphi consensus method

The Delphi method is a structured way to extract consensus (and quantify disagreement) from a distributed expert panel. It works in rounds:

Round 1. Each panelist independently answers a set of structured questions (“How serious is X? What are the top three drivers of Y?”).
Aggregation. Anonymized responses are tabulated. Areas of agreement and disagreement are summarized.
Round 2. Panelists see the group response and may revise their answers. They are asked to justify positions that deviate from the group view.
Iterate if new questions are identified, to ensure that interpretations of consensus are correct.
Final statements. The consensus is summarized in the paper.

For an example of the Delphi method applied in our field, see Mukherjee et al., The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2015).

Timeline

The paper is being built in phases. The current public-facing milestones are:

Phase 1 — Scoping. Outline, figure list, and drafts of data, figures, and text. Scoping of questions for Delphi.
Phase 2 — Delphi rounds. Two to three rounds of structured input.
Phase 3 — Drafting. Drafting of Delphi consensus.
Phase 4 — Internal review. Full co-author review and final Delphi pass.
Phase 5 — Submission.

Precedent

This effort follows a tradition of consensus “scientists’ warnings” published in journals across biology and medicine — most prominently Ripple et al.’s World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice (BioScience, 2017), co-signed by over 15,000 scientists, which revived the format. See the Documents page for specific precedents we are modeling on.

Coordination

The paper is coordinated by Moisés Expósito-Alonso (UC Berkeley, HHMI Freeman Hrabowski Scholar).